Arsenal's Narrowing Lead

I'm always rooting for Arsenal to win the English Premier League again. They won in 1998, 2002 and 2004. The first 2 of these wins were very closely fought. In 97-98, the title fight went to the last day. And also in 98-99. Man U and Arsenal won one each. In 01-02, Arsenal had to play catch up to win the league, and win several matches in a row. The next year, they surrendered the league title to Man U. Only in their invincibles season did they win the title convincingly. 

I wasn't following football back in 88-89, but Arsenal won the title on the last day, albeit against a Liverpool side that had been emotionally shattered by the events of Hillsborough the previous month. That was certainly an example of a narrow title win. And we didn't know it then, but the 1991 title win was the first year in Liverpool's long league title drought, that would span 29 years. 

As important as the titles that Arsenal won, were the titles that Arsenal didn't win, that they lost narrowly. In 98-99, to Man U. In 02-03, the title that would have achieved a three-peat for Arsenal's greatest team. 

The last 3 seasons, from 22-25, Arsenal had lost the title. They were 2nd in all 3 seasons. The first season, they had built up a commanding lead, but they couldn't hold on to it because they were not sufficiently prepared to go out and win the title vs Man City. The next season was the same story. Then they had a drop off in 24-25 when they failed to win a title against Liverpool. 

For the second season in a row, Arsenal were the hot favourites to win the title. In the 24-25 season, they just couldn't compete, because they had an injury crisis. It was hoped that this year, they'd have new signings that would carry them through to the league title. However, some of their reinforcements have not turned out to be the winners they'd hoped for. Eberechi Eze and Victor Gyokeres have not made as much of an impact as might have been hoped. Kai Havertz and Ben White have not been as injury free as might have been hoped. 

The problem with Arsenal is that it's like the England national team. When they seem to be on the brink of victory, the anticipation reaches a fever pitch and it's too much of a distraction. There had been some talk a few weeks ago that Arsenal would simply ride to the title, when they were 7 points ahead at this stage. Since then, Man City turned a losing position against Liverpool into a victory, and Arsenal drew a game against Brentford. And this followed draws or losses against Man U and Nottingham Forest that should have been wins. It is a sinking, familiar feeling for Arsenal supporters who are used to seeing title challenges collapsing when they draw against mid-table sides a champion is expected to beat. 

It's still not a bad position to be in, when Arsenal are still involved in all 4 competitions at this late stage, and people always believe that Arsenal could win one or more trophies. But the problem is that Arsenal isn't quite as wily as Pep Guardiola. Mikel Arteta has a problem that's quite different from Arsene Wenger. Wenger leaves too much to chance. Arteta tries to control the uncontrollable, and he robs his teams of the freedom and spontaneity to find their way through some of the barriers when plan A doesn't work. There is too much dependence on set pieces and gamesmanship, and some of their attacks are too predictable to cause problems to the opposition. 

When I see Tim Sherwood being a pundit, that reminds me that he was in the Blackburn side which made 2 title challenges in the mid 90s and won 1 of them. At one point, they were 8 points ahead, then they almost lost the title to Man U, even though Man U were without Eric Cantona. You could say that being 7 points ahead at the start of the year is a very strong position, but now that has almost been cut to half to 4 points. Neither Man City nor Arsenal have the better run-in for the title, but if Arsenal doesn't solve whatever it is which is stopping them from running away with the title, they're going to find themselves second for the 4th time in a row. Previously it would feel a bit extreme to call them bottlers, but this time, it would be a lot more appropriate. 

I usually associate Arsenal winning the title with me making a breakthrough in life. Life hasn't been hard for me, but it isn't going forwards either. That's why I'm always hoping for Arsenal to win the title. And so far, they've had a pretty long drought, considering that there were title challenges a few times. 

I think that Blackburn's title run-in is one of the most interesting of the title challenges. It's when you have a team breathing down your neck, and somehow you hold your nerve and win it at the last. It was like that for Man City's 2012 win too, back when it wasn't managed by Guardiola, and title wins were a little shaky. I have a feeling that Arsenal aren't going to win the league by more than 5 points. They'll either have to go down to the wire, or give it up. 

And in one of those previous years, I was also trying for a league title of my own. It was an "A" levels year, and I remember feeling that it was never a guarantee that I would come out of it with straight "A"s. In real life, it also felt like winning a league title by a narrow margin, although I did end up with good results. 

So here's the thing: in spite of a lot of youtube video's I've watched that largely opined that Arsenal would take advantage of slumps in Man City and Liverpool to win this year's title, it's not ever a given. Guardiola wins a lot of titles because he always has a new trick up his sleeve. His understanding of football is so good that he'll be able to come up with something strategically creative. He's not a one dimensional tactician. Every time somebody has him worked out, he can come up with something different. He started with tiki taka, but he could also play a pressing game, and he even tinkered a bit with long ball tactics, which meant slaughtering the sacred cow in possession statistics. Arteta consistently finds it hard to get one over his former teacher. When you are up against Guardiola in the league, there's not ever such a thing as the title is in the bag, until you're mathematically certain of victory. Just ask Liverpool, who lost the title on the last day against them more than a few times.