England in the finals of the Euros

 

So England are in the finals again... I'm now thinking about England doing well in a tournament. It happened in 2018, 2021, 2024. IT's happened with some regularity. Every time they did well in tournaments, I've had difficulties in my life. Adjusting to secondary school, adjusting to NS and life after school, having to retain my Axure job, having to fight for a permanent position, and now I have this issue. Is this going to be a regular thing, is England going to the finals often, and if that happens, am I going to have a crisis every few years?

The last England manager that everybody was happy about was Terry Venables. He shouldn't have been forced out, but he was. They were very close to getting to the final in Euro 1996, and if they did, they had a good chance against the Czech Republic. There was Glenn Hoddle, who was decent, but they went out after the second round during that match when David Beckham got red carded. He had a decent team, I don't know how well he would have done if he was given a chance to manage in Euro 2000. Then there was Kevin Keegan, who had a relatively short tenure. He wasn't smart enough to be England manager, and he got dumped out the group stage.

England got knocked out pretty early during the Sven Goran Eriksson years. The Eriksson years began well, and there was that great 5-1 defeat of Germany in Munich. It seemed like the dawn of a golden era, and very often that team was called the golden generation, but they never seemed to fulfill their potential. They were knocked out by Brazil in 2002. That is not shameful, because it was the Brazil of Ronaldo, Rivaldo and Ronaldinho. (And arguably the last great Brazillian side).

Then there was Euros 2004, when they had a great side, but lost to Portugal. They also lost to Portugal in the quarters in 2006. Those two tournaments were infamous, because there was a lot of talk of disunity within the squad, which was confirmed years later by the players themselves. There was an over-reliance on David Beckham, who was always picked regardless of whether he played well or if he fit into the team.

The Steve McLaren years were worse. He failed to get England into Euros 2008, and this was the last time they failed to qualify for a major tournament. Then there was Fabio Capello, who had a lot of success with club sides, but was the wrong person to help the England players deal with the stress of playing for England. Roy Hodgson wasn't any better. 2014, group stage at the World Cup. Euros 2016, knocked out by Iceland. 

And now there is Southgate. Gareth Southgate took England to the semi-finals of World Cup 2018 and the finals of Euros 2020 and Euros 2024. But you could argue that he was often the beneficiary of the knockout rounds falling kindly for him.

World Cup 2018: Colombia, Sweden. Euros 2020: Germany, Ukraine, Denmark. Euros 2024: Slovakia, Switzerland, Holland. Contrast that to the Eriksson era, when they were knocked out by Brazil and Portugal. In fact, it was quite often the case that the first time they encountered a genuine contender, they were knocked out. In 2018, they lost to Croatia. In 2020 (actually 2021) they lost to Italy. In 2022, they lost to France, who went on to lose in the final. In 2024, with all due respect to Holland, Spain is the first real contender they will face. It would be an upset victory if England wre to win against them.

But England do have some of the best players in the world, and many of them play for sides like Man City, Liverpool, Arsenal and Real Madrid, who are the best club sides in the world, and are tactically astute.

The Euros, though, are a tournament where it's not always clear that the favourite to reach the finals will win it. Czechoslovakia won it in 1976, Denmark 1992, Greece 2004, Portugal 2016, These wins demonstrate that it's quite possible for an underdog to win it. For the World Cup, the first 5 editions, there were quite a few upsets: Uruguay was an early powerhouse in football, so winning 2 was not surprise, but the win over Brazil in 1950 was a big shock. Italy may not have won their first 2 World Cups entirely fairly. And there was 1954, when Hungary was heavily favoured to win, but West Germany won it instead: this was before Germany became a powerhouse. After that, one struggles to pinpoint instances where dark horses triumphed and won the World Cup.

But it's not entirely surprising to see a few dark horses end up as beaten finalists in the World Cup. Countries like Czechoslovakia, Sweden and Croatia have reached the finals before. Perhaps underdogs winning the Euros is going to be more difficult in the expanded formats. So when England makes it to the finals of the Euros twice in a row, are people in the future going to see it as some kind of lucky break, or are they truly a great national team?

There's also the question of legitimacy. England won't be seen as a great side unless they win this competition at least once. The odds against them are quite daunting, as Spain have proven themselves to be a good team in this tournament. But England do have the best players, and if they do click, many of them play for very tactically well-drilled teams in Man City, Arsenal, Liverpool, Man U, Aston Villa and Real Madrid. So it only slightly favours Spain. And there's this forbidding record of Spain in Euro / European finals, where they have always beaten the non-Spanish side during the last 20 years. Either that is coming to an end, or the Spanish streak will continue. The Spanish sides which have made this list are amongst the greatest sides ever. There was Barcelona and Spain, who were the best club and Spain sides of all time during their glory years. There was Real Madrid, who had a great midfield who always figured out how to win the match no matter what. There were also teams like Sevilla, who often reached the finals of the Europa league and won it, and who could count on that experience to win it all. But there were instances where the teams were evenly matched, Spanish teams have beaten Liverpool in the Europa / UCL finals. But then there was Sevilla beating Inter Milan and a Roma team coached by Jose Mourinho. There was Villareal beating Man U. These were games that could have gone either way, and the Spanish side managed to win. 

There are sides who have gotten to the finals multiple times and failed to win. Hungary went to the World Cup finals twice and were favourites to win it at least once. Same with the Netherlands, who reached 2 successive finals in the World Cup in the 70s and lost them both. There was Benfica, victim of the infamous "Benfica Curse", who lost 8 Europa League and UCL finals. 3 of them in the 60s, 3 of them in the 80s, and 2 of them in the 2010s. 3 great sides, and nothing to show for it. People might forget the Valencia side who reached 2 consecutive champions league finals and lost them both. There was the infamous Bayer "Neverkusen" side who finished Bundesliga runner-ups 4 times in 6 years. In the league, it is quite common for sides to finish second many times. Newcastle never won the premier league, but they finished runner ups twice. Tottenham had finished second and third a few times under Pochettino. Arsenal's great sides under Wenger and Arteta have always coincided with better opposition, so they have finished second 8 times. Liverpool also have had to finish second 5 times, most times under the Manchester sides. 

So there are clubs who have finished second in competitions frequently and then gone on to break their duck. And there were clubs who just don't break their duck, and are cursed to be Neverkusens, although they finally broke their duck this season. There was the infamous Buffalo Bills, the Neverkusen of American football, who reached the Superbowl 4 times in a row, and never won it, ever. So which are England? Well, England are lucky that they are in a competition where it's quite likely that the favourite doesn't win, so in the Euros, there's no such thing as a favourite, going into the finals.